CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-12-25T09:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-12-25T09:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28336/-1
CME Note: Very faint partial halo only seen in SOHO LASCO C2 and COR2A difference imagery (not seen in C3), with the likely source a sigmoid-shaped filament eruption centered around (N20E10) extending from N25E25 in the NE to AR 3530 (S08W10). The filament is seen erupting after 2023-12-25T07:20Z in SDO AIA 193 (as dimming and post-eruptive arcades) and 304 (as arcade footpoint brightening). Filament not seen in H-Alpha (but seen in AIA 211). Faint halo with slight east bias. Arrival Signature: Characterized by amplification in magnetic field components, with B_total reaching a maximum of 11nT at 2023-12-29T21:42Z. Accompanied by a minor increase in speed from ~360 km/s to ~390 km/s. Density data is speculative as there are discrepancies between DSCOVR and ACE, as well as data gaps. Prior to the arrival, there were several bumps in density around 2023-12-28T22:45Z, 2023-12-29T02:50Z, and 2023-12-29T08:45Z, possibly due to the preceding CME arrival from 2023-12-27T08:26Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-29T11:34Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-28T20:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 88.58 hour(s)
Difference: 15.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-12-25T18:59Z
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